North Korea (DPRK) is in the news these days, big time. For years they have been trying to develop nuclear weapons as the ultimate defense against attack by a hostile South Korea (ROK) and its American ally, hard feelings leftover from the brutal Korean War of 1950-53.
In my opinion, the truth of the matter is, China has been assisting the DPRK’s nuclear program all along. China and DPRK share the same objective, remove US Forces from the peninsula and pacify the relationship with the South. China is the patron and DPRK is the vassal.
Building an atom bomb is not particularly easy. DPRK has been mining and enriching uranium and harvesting plutonium from its reactors for quite a while. Turning the fissile material into a bomb requires very precise trigger mechanisms, supplied by China of course. DPRK’s September 2017 nuclear test at the Punggye-ri test site near the border with China, was a 150-kiloton thermonuclear device, something even more difficult to build.
My point is, the DPRK does not have an independent nuclear program, everything is controlled by China. The 150-kiloton thermonuclear device was undoubtedly supplied by China; it’s the common size weapon used in MIRVed ICBMs; a very effective way of intimidating ROK and the Americans.
It’s the same with the missiles, which are needed to reliably deliver nuclear weapons to a target. DPRK has long since had Scud-type missiles, derivatives of the original German V2 rockets. The missiles fired in 2017 over Japan and into the Pacific was merely a super-Scud, i.e., a Scud with a second or third stage attached; very inaccurate and incapable of delivering a primitive nuclear weapon. The advanced, solid fuel, cold launched missiles widely publicized are strictly Chinese made and operated.
Here is my rationale for this unorthodox belief:
a) China came to the rescue of DPRK in 1950 and, along with the Russians, has been a patron of the regime ever since. The DPRK can rightfully be called a vassal of China, where Koreans govern their internal affairs and China coordinates most foreign policy initiatives and all defense programs involving advanced weapons, including ballistic missiles beyond the simple Scud types.
b) China would never tolerate the development of an independent nuclear strike capability by any of the buffer states surrounding the “middle kingdom”. Nor would uranium enrichment activity be allowed without their supervision.
c) China’s strategic objective in this elaborate masquerade is to marginalize and eventually, through negotiation, eliminate US military influence on the Korean peninsula, thereby enabling closer ties between China and the ROK; also to present the two Koreas as a mainland counter to Japan and the US. The US has been a military power in the Western Pacific since the 1830s and China sees that as a potential threat.
d) As an added benefit to China, the test shots at Punggye-ri provided a convenient cover for clandestine testing of Chinese nuclear weapons. All of the world’s nuclear powers would really like to test their latest warhead designs but are stymied by the near-universal Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
The dance of summit meetings and negotiations during the Trump years were headed towards an eventual deal, where the DPRK mothballs or otherwise disposes of its
fake weapons, missiles and production facilities, in exchange for a greatly
reduced US presence on the peninsula. Unfortunately, China nixed the deal, for reasons which are not clear, perhaps thinking they could get something better from a Trump-successor. It
will take years of negotiation and involve a peace agreement ending the Korean
War, plus mutual conventional arms reduction on both sides of the DMZ. Unification of North and South is possible
only after all this is over. The sooner the better, in my opinion.
Leaving
ROK to a close political relationship with China will be a bitter pill for
American neocons to swallow, but it is for the best I believe. I subscribe to the “MacArthur Doctrine”, which
warns against putting US troops on the Asian mainland. Trump apparently does too, but unfortunately the shenanigans of November 2020 removed that possibility, and I believe he's too old to run again in 2024
FWIW,
I’ve heard from professional DPRK watchers that other people, both in and out
of government, hold views similar to mine, although the official line is quite
different. Meanwhile, I am amazed that the world’s politicians, news analysts
and pundits appear to be completely hoodwinked by this clever charade. This sort of gullibility seems to be a pattern of behavior among the political class in industrialized countries.
